A college, seeking to substantially increase the number of students it recruited, made the decision a few years ago to go to an open-enrollment model, rather than requiring a specific set of admissions standards. Predictably, it was inundated with applications. At first, everything looked rosy. Class sizes grew. More faculty were hired. Tuition revenue expanded by leaps and bounds.
But then came the challenge. A tremendous number of these open-enrollment students failed to perform in the classroom. Plagiarism skyrocketed and faculty and administration spent a tremendous amount of time in remedial coaching or disciplinary actions. Average student persistence, or the number of students who completed degrees, dropped off considerably. This reflected poorly on the college’s reputation and accreditation. After some soul searching, the college reinstituted its admission standards and is working to recover from this misguided strategy.
You may not be making decisions as consequential and far-reaching as this one. But chances are you’ve seen things go awry when the decision makers do not consider the possible consequences and outcomes three, four, and five steps down the road. We’ve been seeing this with some of the recent marketing campaigns that try to leverage today’s social controversaries. (Bud Light anyone?)
Whether you’re making a big decision or small one, it helps to consider what might happen once you act. Some managers resort to an exercise commonly known as a premortem. A postmortem is when you reflect on what could have been done better after a decision has been made and implemented. A premortem is when you assume the decision has already been implemented and then imagine all the reactions and responses that might have happened. Then you work to anticipate these possible responses in order to mitigate the challenges that might occur.
As you, I am continually surprised that so many decision makers are shocked at the unintended consequences of their decisions. Taking a few minutes to imagine how those affected by the decision might react can save hours of time, treasure and heartburn. What’s an upcoming decision you have to make that would be served by conducting a premortem before implementation?